Iraq - what it'll be?

Last update: 8 Mar 07, 15:28 ET

Motherhood of our civilization, the land which gave us a lot of historical miracles – what will happen here in the nearest future?     What have happened after the Bush invasion in 2003? Refugees International tells us about 2.3 million Iraqi refugees in the beginning of 2007. Country has got multi-billion debt. If previously billions and billions "oil dollars" were invested in Iraq army & secret services, now they are "disappearing" somewhere near Houston.     But what has Iraq War really do for this Babylon's lands? Let's begin from the reasons of this "cold-wave incursion".     Weapons of mass destruction. Everybody from US intelligence services, including former CIA officer Valerie Plame, told George W. Bush administration about Saddam's wishes for having such weapons without real possibilities to create or buy them. May be George had read too much Tom Clancy's fiction books without understanding that it's fiction, not reality? Or he dreamt about "small victorious war" as his father had done. But George H.W. Bush knew where to stop (or he had better advisers).     Supporting of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organization. I don't know who was George "Junior" teacher of history, but can't say anything good about these lessons. Saddam Hussein was a real dictator and as every dictator couldn't bear any powerful organization near. Have you heard a lot about organized crime in Hitler's Germany?     But what we see now? Sunni in Iraq has become unpowerful minority (as Kurd in Saddam's era). And now in uncontrolled territory of Iraq overcrowded by weapon and hatred Al-Qaeda feels itself as "fish in the fresh water". I tell you more. Sunni is a minority in Iraq, but the largest denomination in Islamic world. And their brothers in other countries will have and support them more and more. What % of this support will come to Al-Qaeda – not small, I'm sure.     What are today's results of this war for US citizens? Billions for war, gas prices fly higher and higher. And the most serious – thousands of Americans loosing their lives in Iraq.     Results for world? 1st – Iraqi Kurdistan. Republicans can call it autonomy. Formally – may be. 6 northern governorates of Iraq are controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government. Peshmerga (armed forces of Kurdistan) has at least 100.000 fighters armed with tanks, artillery and air-defence systems. Oil fields, exploration agreement with Norwegian, Canada's and UK's oil companies. Flag and universities, their own President Massoud Barzani (with the level of trust in Kurdistan much higher than Bush's level of trust in USA) and official Kurdish language. You can call this situation as you want, but I have to say – it's the core of the future independent country.     It's "the greatest present" for Turkey, where the situation with 15 million Kurds can be easily compared with genocide. Ankara's war with Kurds isn't less cruel than Saddam's attacks. And do you believe that Kurds in Iraq (or better say former Iraq?) forget about it? The tensity in Turkish Kurdistan will increase day by day. This situation will block any plans of gas and oil pipelines from "full of energy" region of Caspian Sea to Mediterranean ports and Europe around (excluding) Russia.     2nd – 20% of Sunni Arabs (most of them – in "the Sunni Triangle"). They've lost a lot after the Iraq War – the power in political life of the country, positions in business, high ranks in the Army of Iraq. Do you believe that they are happy because of such "freedom"? Now they become a "fertile field" for every anti-American and anti-Western organization. Thousands and millions perspective volunteers for Osama bin Laden. Even Israel, highly experienced in such war with irregulars, suffers from suicide bombers and small missiles of Hezbollah. In Iraq insurgents have the access to the "disappeared" supplies of Hussein's armed forces. These reserves will be enough for a long-long years of blood and demolition.     Do you think that in the south of Iraq everything is "soft & comfortable"? 3rd point of stress – Shia Arabs of Iraq. May be people in Bush's administration haven't read Clancy's novels to the end. Or they have special political vision, which let them not to notice inconvenient moments. Even Tom Clancy could understand the dangerous of disappearing powerful authority in Baghdad. George W. Bush has become a real dear friend to Iran's leaders after invasion into Iraq and Saddam's death. He "pushed" all Shia Arabs from the "oilfull" south of Iraq to the open arms of Iran religious authorities.     We have to applaud this "cool Texas ranger"! Instead of one small world's headache in the person of Saddam Hussein he could transmute this land of Gardens of Eden into 3 serious problems for USA, Middle East and entire world!

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